Maritime

East Coast Australia JIP delivers a new interactive dashboard for LNG forecast

East Australia LNG forecast

A comprehensive and interactive dashboard that predicts LNG demand and enables scenario modelling in Australia was developed as a result of the East Coast Australia LNG Joint Industry Project (EC JIP). Facilitated by leading classification society DNV GL, project partners included oil & gas suppliers, LNG infrastructure consultants, ship owners and operators, charterers, industry associations, governmental agencies and regulators. The EC JIP was recently concluded in October and the dashboard will be made available to the public via subscription soon.

With increasingly stringent international regulations to decarbonize shipping and Australia's unique position as the world's largest LNG exporter, the EC JIP brought together key representatives in Australia from all parts of the logistics chain to explore the uptake of LNG on the continent’s East Coast as a transition to lower emission marine fuels. Established in 2019, this project builds on the successful Green Corridor JIP in 2018, where major stakeholders examined the economic feasibility of LNG-fuelled bulk carrier designs for transporting iron ore and coal between Australia and China. 

“Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is crucial for the future of the shipping industry,” said Cristina Saenz de Santa Maria, Regional Manager for South East Asia, Pacific & India at DNV GL Maritime. By working together with supply chain partners, we hope that this project charts a way forward for the uptake of LNG as ship fuel in Australia, offering them clear insights on how to meet the challenges and opportunities ahead.

"In the Green Corridor project, we saw that there are significant differences in the commercial and technical viability between the West Coast and the East Coast of Australia. For the latest East Coast LNG project, the partners focused on scrutinizing the demand for LNG as a marine fuel as well as looked into an expanded scope of multiple trade routes for bulk, container and passenger vessels, which are major segments trading in this part of Australia," said Jonathan Abrahams, Head of Maritime Advisory, Australia & New Zealand at DNV GL - Maritime.

Apart from assessing the business case for LNG as a marine fuel from 2022, the project also sought to address challenges faced by key stakeholders and to position Australia at the forefront of LNG fuelled shipping. The project was carried out in two phases. In Phase 1, the project concluded on a suitable scenario model structure to calculate key demand forecast. The East Coast LNG project went on to develop infrastructure concepts for selected bunkering solutions in Phase 2, looking into specific technical and operational parameters.

The results are presented in a unique dashboard. It incorporates vessel arrival information and fuel consumption data for 2018–2019 as the baseline and enables detailed analysis and forecasting based on ship type, size, age, port of origin, alternative fuel uptake and fleet development through to 2050. 

With LNG gaining momentum as an optimal fuel for low emissions shipping, the dashboard shows that there is a huge growth potential for Australia with the presence of abundant production facilities. Ports identified as important facilities for LNG supply, namely Newcastle, Port Kembla and Hastings, should develop scalable infrastructures to support the growing demand for different ship types. 

"DNV GL is proud to have facilitated this project, which is modelled after the forecast methodology of our annual energy transition publication, the Maritime Forecast to 2050. With an interactive dashboard hosted on our open industry platform Veracity, it consolidates data from multiple sources onto a single interface and allows for constant iterations to reflect an up-to-date scenario model to support decisions on adopting LNG as a fuel," added Jonathan Abrahams.

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The interactive dashboard enables to forecast LNG demand on Australia’s East Coast based on historic fuel consumption data of various ship types, considering size, age, port of origin, alternative fuel uptake and fleet development through to 2050.