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Probabilistic risk-based modelling tool for the power industry

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DNV GL launches a probabilistic risk-based modelling tool enabling the power industry to improve reliability and resilience at a lower cost.
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  • Keywords: Energy
Probabilistic risk-based modelling tool for the power industry
Dick Bratcher: "consider all plausible situations when assessing grid resilience"

DNV GL announces the availability of its ADAPT framework which helps the power industry better understand the implications of threats, such as storms, drought, wildfires and cyber attacks, by being able to proactively assess technological and physical risks impacting grid reliability and profitability.

ADAPT is the result of DNV GL’s in-depth examination of the potential impact of dynamic conditions on future extreme events. DNV GL invests 5 per cent of its annual revenue in innovation and joint industry projects, such as ADAPT, to solve the most pressing strategic and technological dilemmas facing the industries it serves. By investing in research to explore the implications of climatic conditions on the grid, DNV GL developed ADAPT for the Power industry. This framework has been applied to the electric power sector in Long Island through an assessment studying future events, similar to Superstorm Sandy, on substations in the area. DNV GL expert Dick Bratcher recently reported on this application of ADAPT at IEEE’s PES General Meeting during July 2014.

“As we have seen, substations are vulnerable to severe weather conditions,” said Bratcher, a senior principal consultant at DNV GL. “ADAPT can identify comparative future risk for the geographic location of one substation over another and indicate which other asset risks could arise during a severe event.”

ADAPT is capable of assessing a range of statistically-predictable events. It calculates vulnerability of system components, uncovers previously-unidentified risks, evaluates the effect of multiple contingencies on the ability to serve load and identifies cost-effective measures to enhance grid resilience. Which substations are most vulnerable? What risks apply to particular locations? The framework helps utilities and grid planners make the critical and timely decisions that increase reliability while reducing risk and cost associated with such severe events.

A recent power industry report, Adaptation to a Changing Climate, released by DNV GL as part of its 150th Anniversary initiative cites six components involved in effectively assessing risk:
• Climate Projections
• Hazards
• Impacts
• Risk
• Risk Management Measures
• Cost-Benefit Analysis

These components help build scenarios that identify stressors, vulnerabilities and consequences used to determine appropriate resilience options and investments for power system planners and operators.

“It is pertinent to consider all plausible situations when assessing grid resilience. That is what ADAPT configures, and it is why we are enthusiastic about the impact this capability can make in the electric power sector during this time of transformation” said Bratcher.