The forecasted investment in upstream gas will support the doubling of liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacity that the Outlook predicts between 2018 and the late 2040s. This growth will reflect the industry connecting new sources of gas supply with changing centres of demand (Figure 2). Seaborne gas trade is forecast to treble from North America to China by 2050. An increase in trade from Sub-Saharan Africa to India and South East Asia is also expected.
“We also see the nature of gas beginning to change dramatically, as greener gases – including biogas, hydrogen and syngas – enter gas transmission and distribution networks,” Bennett said.
The industry’s digital transformation will play a significant role in achieving this, he added. “Data analytics will facilitate more sophisticated midstream and downstream network models to ensure consistent gas quality using mixed gas sources.”
Energy Transition Outlook guides strategy and policies for the transition
Despite DNV GL’s predictions for a rapid decarbonization of the world energy system, the Energy Transition Outlook forecasts that global warming will likely reach 2.6 degrees Celsius (°C) above pre-industrial levels in 2050. This is well above the 2°C target set out by the COP 21 Paris Agreement on climate change.
“I see it as our sector’s responsibility to maintain sharp focus on decarbonization,” said Hovem. “For example, DNV GL is supporting operators to validate the technical feasibility of hydrogen-powered gas networks. It will help our sector take a big step forward in significantly reducing its carbon footprint.
She pointed out that the increased uptake of carbon capture and storage (CCS) will also play a role: “The economics of large-scale CCS will improve for energy-intensive activities such as gas-fuelled power generation. But our Energy Transition Outlook model currently forecasts that CCS will capture only 1.5% of emissions related to energy and industrial processes in 2050. At DNV GL we have a role to play in supporting the policy changes that will be needed to support the large-scale roll-out of CCS in our industry.”
The company’s suite of 2018 Energy Transition Outlook reports can assist strategy and policy makers to maximize opportunities and minimize risks as the world energy system evolves. The main Outlook report covers the transition of the entire energy mix to 2050. It is accompanied by three supplements forecasting implications for the oil and gas, power supply, and maritime industries. All are available free of charge.
Download the 2018 Energy Transition Outlook reports from: eto.dnvgl.com