Probabilistic analysis and uncertainty quantification (UQ) are important elements in robust design techniques for wind turbines. Using more probabilistic approaches allows turbine designs to be improved, making them cheaper yet more reliable, as well as reducing the cost of energy.
Our advanced probabilistic analysis is the perfect service for wind turbine designers interested in a more comprehensive and detailed approach to the design process. It facilitates a more rational design approach, taking explicit account of uncertainties within the load and strength calculations.
Improving reliability, reducing cost
Probabilistic techniques extend the typical ‘deterministic’ design approach, whereby characteristic design levels are used in conjunction with co-defined safety factors. Probabilistic analysis enables you to be more precise when applying design methodologies. They can help reduce areas of over- and under-conservatism, commonly associated with traditional techniques. Therefore you can improve reliability, reduce design cost and ultimately cost of energy.
We can carry out structural reliability analysis on key components using a range of techniques, such as first and second order reliability methods (FORM, SORM) and other simulation based approaches. Formal UQ and sensitivity analysis is performed using a range of approaches, from perturbation through to advanced spectral methods. We also work closely with you to review measured turbine load data, and apply that knowledge in refining uncertainty model/parameters.
Sensitivity analysis – assesses the sensitivity of turbine response and loading envelope to uncertainties and variations in model inputs together with overall model uncertainties.
Structural reliability analysis – we can compute the probability of major structural component failure in the turbine. This can then be compared against the target reliability levels set by you or within design standards.
Calling on in-depth knowledge and tools, we are well placed to support and guide you through the design process, anywhere in the world. We are at the forefront of developing advanced numerical modelling and load calculation techniques that can be applied to next generation turbine designs.