Energy Transition Programme

Our long term forecast of the energy transition and the implications for our industries

Graphic showing the energy transition

An energy transition is underway

Climate change is a major risk to the planet. An energy transition is underway, in a context of increasing population and intense demand on resources.

The two megatrends in the energy transition are decarbonization and electrification. The underlying driver for decarbonization is the global concern over climate change and its consequences. Local environmental challenges and energy security also contribute.

The energy transition will have dramatic consequences with wide-reaching impact, affecting DNV GL and its customers. The transition also holds significant opportunities for the players involved. 

Our work intends to understand the transition dynamics and impact on the world at large, on our customers and industries, and on DNV GL itself. 

Our approach

To establish an independent view of the energy transition, DNV GL is developing its own energy transition model. The system dynamics model we are using includes population, productivity and energy efficiency considerations. It looks at a dozen separate energy supply and demand sectors, and helps us establish an independent outlook through to 2050.

The results will be presented in a global and regional analysis of the world’s energy system, as well as separate outlooks for each of our key industries.

As part of this approach we are analyzing energy transition drivers. These include general drivers – such as policies and efforts supporting technology developments – as well as drivers in major trends such as sustainability, digitalization and urbanization. We are also investigating business model changes, like the sharing and circular economy models. Finally, we consider the major transition barriers, such as energy security and protectionism, short-termism, and lack of coordination and predictability in targets, policies and incentives.

The energy transition research combines the long-term focus of DNV GL’s Strategic Research & Innovation team with the customer-centricity and the technological competence of our business areas: Maritime, Oil & Gas, Energy, Business Assurance and Software.